A Statistical Model for Hourly Large-Scale Wind and Photovoltaic Generation in New Locations

Abstract

The analysis of large-scale wind and photovoltaic (PV) energy generation is of vital importance in power systems where their penetration is high. This paper presents a modular methodology to assess the power generation and volatility of a system consisting of both PV plants (PVPs) and wind power plants (WPPs) in new locations. The methodology is based on statistical modelling of PV and WPP locations with a vector autoregressive model, which takes into account both the temporal correlations in individual plants and the spatial correlations between the plants. The spatial correlations are linked through distances between the locations, which allows the methodology to be used to assess scenarios with PVPs and WPPs in multiple locations without actual measurement data. The methodology can be applied by the transmission and distribution system operators when analysing the effects and feasibility of new PVPs and WPPs in system planning.

Existing System

Neural Network.

Proposed System

This paper has introduced an MC simulation based methodology to model systems with WPPs and PVPs in multiple existing or new locations. A VAR model was presented to capture the temporal correlations in individual locations and the spatial correlations between the locations. The spatial correlations were linked to the geographical distances between the locations to enable the addition of non-measured generation locations to the model. The model was verified against two out-of-sample test locations, one wind and one solar location, which were both excluded from the estimation. It was shown that the model was able to produce simulated data with the correct temporal and spatial correlation structures and probability distributions for the test locations. The methodology can be utilized in long-term simulations and scenario analyses focusing on the variability of the aggregate RES generation in power systems with multiple WPPs and PVPs. The methodology can be applied in any geographical area where measurement data for the estimation of the model parameters are available. The modular structure of the model allows it to be combined with several different wind turbine or PV panel models, as the model provides simulated wind speed and global irradiance data instead of power data. The methodology can be beneficial for both transmission and distribution system operators alike, and for power producers that have both wind and solar energy generation in their portfolio.

Architecture

Flowchart of the MC simulation procedure